The advance of Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil reaches US$ 47 billion in the first half of 2026 and repositions the environmental asset as a driver of governance, valuation, and international traceability.

By Priscila Campos

Businesswoman, specialist in business structuring, governance, and business internationalization.

In addition to its undeniable climate potential, Brazil continues to attract international productive capital at an accelerated pace. Foreign direct investment in the country reached approximately US$ 47 billion in the first half of 2026, an increase of around 33% compared to the same period of the previous year.

This financial flow is not accidental. It marks a historic shift: foreign capital is no longer seeking only the consumer market, infrastructure, or Brazil’s traditional commodities. International capital is positioning itself where the capacity to generate carbon assets at scale intersects with a new and rigorous legal and financial market infrastructure.

Carbon credits have definitively moved beyond the sphere of institutional communication and reputational sustainability to consolidate themselves at the center of capital allocation decisions, corporate governance, tax planning, and business valuation.

The Regulatory Framework: From Socio-Environmental Rhetoric to a Regulated Financial Market

The enactment of Law No. 15,042, of December 11, 2024, established the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System (SBCE). The legislation establishes the architecture of the regulated market in Brazil by defining clear instruments:

• Brazilian Emissions Allowance (CBE): Represents the right to emit one metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e).
• Verified Emission Reduction or Removal Certificate (CRVE): Represents the effective verified reduction or removal of CO₂e, linked to accredited methodologies and registration in the SBCE.

The legislation introduced a provision with a direct impact on the financial structuring of businesses: when traded in the financial and capital markets, SBCE assets and carbon credits are considered securities, falling under the direct jurisdiction of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM).

With this change, carbon ceases to belong exclusively to environmental departments and becomes part of the primary agenda of CFOs, boards of directors, independent auditors, and offshore structuring firms.

Mandatory Requirements and Compliance: The SBCE Threshold and the Risk of Hidden Liabilities

Law No. 15,042/2024 established clear thresholds for operational classification:

• Above 10,000 tCO₂e of annual emissions: Requires monitoring obligations and the submission of periodic emissions reports to the managing authority.
• Above 25,000 tCO₂e of annual emissions: Requires compliance with periodic reconciliation obligations, demanding the surrender of assets (CBEs or CRVEs) to neutralize the excess volume.

The Progressive Transition and the National Allocation Plan

Being above the threshold of 25,000 tCO₂e does not require the immediate purchase of carbon credits on the market. The SBCE is undergoing a progressive implementation phase. The exact definition of surrender targets and the distribution of free allowances depend on the enactment of the National Allocation Plan (PNA) and complementary regulation by the managing authorities.

Therefore, the crucial question that board members and finance directors should ask themselves is not “How many credits do I need to buy today?”, but rather: “Does our operation know and accurately price its emissions inventory?”

Why Does Foreign Capital Dominate This Front in Brazil?

There is a purely economic reason for the dominance of international funds and trading companies in the purchase and structuring of these assets in Brazil: valuation arbitrage, cost of capital, and international compliance requirements.

1. Acceleration of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM): International economic blocs are already pricing carbon into imports. Global funds are moving ahead to secure assets in Brazil at a relatively lower cost than the conversion rate required in jurisdictions with high regulatory costs.
2. Unparalleled Scale with Lower Abatement Costs: Brazil is one of the few places on the planet capable of delivering removals and reductions on the scale of millions of tons through nature-based solutions (NBS), reforestation, and precision agriculture.
3. Long-Term Portfolio Vision: While the average company still sees carbon as a “future compliance expense,” the international investor treats it as an appreciating class of real and financial assets.

The Illusion of the “Green Seal”: How Is It Viewed Abroad?

In the highly institutionalized international market, the simplistic concept of a “Green Seal” or “Ecofriendly Company” has completely lost its economic value. Abroad, claims without technical backing are directly classified as a greenwashing risk and result in legal penalties, loss of credit rating, and depreciation in valuation.

• The “Seal” Without Governance Does Not Trade: No major global fund buys a merely reputational seal. The international market buys the origin of audited data.
• Transition from Image to Asset Certification: What the foreign buyer requires is not a promotional seal on the company’s website, but rather the individual identification code of the credit (unique ID), validated under global methodologies and integrated into transparent custody registries.

Custody and Validity: How to Control Whether Credits Are Active and Valid?

The greatest legal and financial trap in this market is acquiring nonexistent, duplicated, or already canceled assets. To ensure that a carbon credit is active and legally valid, the due diligence audit must check the following pillars:

1. Traceability in Global Registries (Custody Platforms)

Valid credits do not exist in PDFs or certificates issued on paper by the seller itself. They must be held in central platforms and independent international registries.

2. Credit Status: Active vs. Retired

A credit only has financial value for resale or reconciliation if its status in the central registry is Active. If the credit has already been used to offset another company’s emissions, it receives Retired status and is permanently removed from circulation. Selling or purchasing a retired credit constitutes double-counting fraud.

3. Asset Due Diligence Checklist

Before closing any financial transaction involving carbon, the company’s management must require:

• Unique Serial ID: The identifying number of the batch in the international registry.
• Vintage Mapping: The exact year in which the carbon reduction or removal was generated.
• Independent Verification Report: The audit issued by a duly accredited third-party organization.
• Ownership and Freedom from Encumbrances: Contractual assurance that ownership of the land and the project is not subject to agrarian, labor, or traditional community rights disputes.

Market Metrics: The Scale of Agribusiness and Origination on the Ground

The potential for generating environmental assets in Brazil reaches macroeconomic dimensions. Sector projections indicate that Brazilian agribusiness could generate up to 314.3 million carbon credits by 2035, reaching an estimated financial volume of R$ 35 billion.

Primary agricultural production received differentiated treatment under Law No. 15,042/2024 and is not summarily equated with major industrial complexes for the purposes of mandatory direct reconciliation. In return, the sector assumes the strategic position of environmental asset provider, originating high-integrity credits through restoration, sustainable management, integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems (ILPF), and biochar technologies.

High-integrity forest preservation and restoration models illustrate how the conversion of ecosystem services into auditable metrics enables the supply of data required by the purchasing market, connecting real preservation in the field with the governance demands of global financial centers.

Governance Structuring and Decision-Making for the Board

The US$ 47 billion in direct investment in Brazil reinforces that foreign capital agents are already positioned. To ensure competitiveness and protect the company’s valuation, the board of directors and executive management must evaluate three central questions at the next strategic meeting:

1. Emissions Mapping: Does the company have an audited inventory of its direct and indirect emissions in compliance with internationally accepted standards?
2. Risk Exposure and Emissions Cost: What is the projected financial impact on the company as the National Allocation Plan (PNA) is implemented under Law No. 15,042/2024?
3. Asset Audit and Validation: Do the credits acquired or generated by the company have registration in global custody and verified active status to avoid exposure to greenwashing risk?

The transition to a carbon-priced economy is not a commitment for the future; it is a legal and capital reality already established in the present. The choice facing decision-makers is to lead the structuring of their assets or bear the costs of regulatory inefficiency.